Daniel Cann

Both men are multi-weight World Champions. Marquez is coming off an impressive ninth round TKO victory over Juan Diaz for the WBO and WBA Lightweight titles. Mayweather has not fought since his tenth round dismantling of Ricky Hatton back in December 2007. Yet the odds makers have installed the American as a 4-1 favourite. This may seem a little unfair in light of Marquez’s undoubted class and proven pedigree but you must remember he is stepping up two (yes two) weight divisions to face Mayweather.

Both men are nearly of equal height, Mayweather is 5’8 to Marquez’s 5’7 (not too much between them there), but, tellingly Mayweather’s reach is 72 inches to Marquez’s 67 inches. The tale of the tape does not settle fights, but it can help us to understand what tactics a fighter will use and where the battle is likely to be fought. These are seasoned professionals who have fought at the highest level for several years and both will have plenty of tricks up their sleeves and this is what makes this such a good match despite the weight issue.

It must be remembered that the American began his career as a super-featherweight and has grown into a Welterweight. He is not a natural welter then either. I believe that at 36 Marquez may find that by not having to boil himself down to lightweight will be more of a help than a hindrance. He can come in at a weight he finds comfortable for this one, he has had plenty of time to build strength and extra pounds at a sensible rate. Going from 135 to 144 is not such a huge leap, although as Britain’s Ricky Hatton found out going up in weight to meet Mayweather is not an enviable task. But then Marquez is an altogether different proposition to Hatton. He is not a pressure fighter; rather he is a slick counterpuncher with fast hands, adept at going to the head and body. He is shooting for ring immortality here and should be up to the task.

The fight has been rescheduled (it was originally to take place back in July) due to a rib injury sustained by Mayweather. If that was the case then Marquez has an excellent opportunity if he can target Mayweather’s body. The Mexican as mentioned before is no slouch in going to the body. If Mayweather has not recovered sufficiently then this could be a big concern for his camp. That said, the man from Grand Rapids is nobody’s fool. There have been rumours that the rib injury was a ruse from Team Mayweather to garner more sales for the show and maybe also to buy their man more training time. Whatever the truth I doubt Floyd would go into this huge fight anything less than 100% prepared and ready.

At stake for both men is a huge pot of money in future lucrative matchups against the best in the lower weights. Neither of them would consider leaving anything to chance, not these professionals anyway. Mayweather has recently said that he is continuing (boxing) as he does not want to be remembered as one of the best but as THE best. A lofty sentiment. It is surprising that he has left it this long, as the old saying goes: ‘To rest is to rust.’ Is it possible that at 32 and with two valuable, possibly peak years lost he may not be as sharp as he used to be?

The Mayweather of two years ago possessed an excellent ring brain, able to deconstruct whatever foe was put in front of him, he had fantastic foot and hand speed and was a defensive master. Anyone facing him was usually in for a very frustrating and often painful evening. Is he the same fighter? It is an intriguing question and Marquez is the kind of fighter to provide us with the answer.

Many experts and pundits feel that perhaps Mayweather has overlooked the modern Mexican great. They say he may be looking ahead to fights with the winner of Novembers fight between the ferocious Filipino Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto. The phrase ‘tune-up’ has been used to describe this contest with Marquez. If Mayweather actually believes this then he could be in for a very nasty surprise and uncomfortable night.

Marquez has tremendous courage and tenacity as well as skill. His fights with the aforementioned Pacquiao attest to that. In their first fight, five years ago Marquez was on the floor three times in the first round, a disastrous start. Many fighters would have been totally disheartened or demoralised. Many would not have got back up. But not only did Marquez get back up he totally out-boxed Pacquiao for many of the remaining rounds. Most at ringside felt that he deserved more than the draw he got. That fight reminded me a little of the Archie Moore versus Yvon Durelle contest when the ‘Old Mongoose’ was knocked down three times in the first round and looked finished before emerging victorious in the eleventh round.

The first Pacquiao contest showed that you write Marquez off at your own peril. Ricky Hatton can vouch for Pacquiao’s power so Marquez’s performance is all the more impressive for it. The second contest between the two ended in a controversial split decision points defeat where again Marquez’s courage and style gave the fast and powerful Filipino all the trouble he could handle.

A third match with Pacquiao must also motivate Marquez. Not only can he settle that score, he can also claim the ‘pound for pound mantle’ (assuming both he and Pacquiao emerge victorious in their next contests). Not only has the Mexican shown his worth in these fights his record shows impressive wins against the likes of quality opponents Derrick Gainer, Rocky Juarez, Robbie Peden, Joel Casamayor, Manuel Medina and Marco Antonio Barrera; How’s that for a resume?

Mayweather’s record is impressive but Marquez’s reads like a ‘Who’s who?’ of boxing for the lighter weights. Three of his defeats are arguably questionable, point’s losses to Robbie Peden, Chris John and Pacquiao. His only other defeat was on his debut where the raw Marquez was disqualified. Not a clean slate but a very impressive career when you look at it closely. He was the first man to stop both the tough and dangerous Cuban Joel Casamayor and former undisputed lightweight World Champion Juan Diaz. Like I said, impressive.

If we look at Mayweather’s record it is also filled with big names with wins over the likes of Angel Manfreddy, Diego Corrales, Jose Luis Castillo, Arturo Gatti, Sharmba Mitchell, Zab Judah, Oscar De La Hoya and (in his last outing nearly two years ago) Ricky Hatton. He has made great fighters look ordinary. His style has caused many to get frustrated, forcing errors and getting pay back from Mayweather with interest. He is a defensive genius. He knows how to duck, dip, dodge, roll, cover up at close quarters or to get on his bicycle if the going gets too hot on the inside. He has a tremendous jab and a devastating straight right counter over the top.

Mayweather has the best built in radar of almost any boxer I have ever seen. His instincts are usually spot-on. He manages to take an opponents’ best game away from them. For example, in his fight with Hatton he was out body punching the body puncher. He is excellent at making another boxer fight the wrong kind of fight. Boxers with the calmest of temperaments have lost their rag against him and been forced into making mistakes. Marquez is a canny experienced pro, but he will have to be careful in not letting Mayweather take him out of his stride or away from his game plan.

This is what I find the most fascinating about this match-up. There are so many unknowns and imponderables. Will Mayweather find a way to make Marquez the natural counter-puncher come forwards on the attack against his better judgement? Perhaps the only way for the Mexican to box Mayweather is to go forwards, cutting the ring down and using pressure? If that is the case then it really will be a style change for Marquez against the master stylist.

Marquez can box as well as fight; he is no one dimensional pressure fighter. He is perfectly placed to test Mayweather to see if the American still ‘has it.’ He can and will exploit any mistakes a rusty Mayweather may make. Marquez is no tune up; rather he is a fiercely proud, ferocious, relentless technician with a huge heart and bags of stamina. He is not the kind of fighter I would select for a ring rusty boxer. That said I’m sure Team Mayweather know what they are doing. You do not take a risk without being confident of winning.

This is a real head scratcher and not the foregone conclusion some think. I find myself choosing Mayweather. Not out of confidence but based on past experience where he has displayed peerless skill. I believe his size, speed, style and ability to wrong foot and frustrate even the best will see him to victory. Marquez is undoubtedly a modern Mexican Great and victory here will elevate his legacy hugely but I feel he, like others before him, will find Mayweather too much of a puzzle to solve. For me it will be an absorbing rather than thrilling contest with Marquez losing a gallant points decision in a close technical fight for the connoisseur.